MAESTRÍA EN ECONOMÍA
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
Facultad de Economía
División de Estudios de Posgrado.
Desarrollo hidroeléctrico la Parota (2011-2016) de la Comisión Federal de Electricidad
(CFE): aplicación de opciones reales para proyectos públicos.
Uso de software: Real Options SLS 2012
Asesor: Dr. Edgar Ortiz Calisto.
This thesis applies real options methodology to evaluate a public investment Project, integrating risk
and operational flexibility for decision taking, aspects neglected by traditional project evaluation
methodologies, including Net Present Value (NPV). Its main objective is evaluating as a growth
option the strategic viability of La Parota hydroelectric project planned by Mexico’s Federal
Electricity Commission, which would be located by Papagayo River, 30 km. away from Acapulco.
Due to its characteristics the project is identified as a growth option and the binomial method is
employed; variables used are: Present value of the expected cash flows and their standard
deviation, costs of implementing the project, risk free interest rate, an expansion factor, and five
years as the option expiring period, time within which is limited the decision of whether to expand or
not to expand. Once the input parameters are known, lattices for the subjacent evolution, growth
and backward induction are estimated. Results show that employing real options methodology the
La Parota project is not viable; the option value is higher than the net present value, i.e., costs for
generating further information to include risk and flexibility for a timely decision making are too high;
this is important additional information not offered by the traditional NPV methodology.